Why Jules Bailey’s Candidacy is Good News for Portland
Monday, November 30, 2015
Brendan Murray, GoLocalPDX Contributor
Late last week, Multnomah County Commissioner Jules Bailey confirmed to GoLocal that he plans to officially kick off his campaign for Mayor of Portland in January of 2016. Experts tell GoLocal that the voters of Portland should be happy that they now have a choice to make in mayoral election.
Jules Bailey, center
Before new of Bailey’s candidacy broke last week, the lone candidate for the Mayor’s Office was State Treasurer Ted Wheeler (D). Wheeler’s position in the race switched from upstart challenger to established favorite overnight when current Mayor Charlie Hales decided not to seek re-election, ending his campaign. For weeks after Hales’ surprise announcement, it seemed as though Wheeler would rise uncontested into the Mayor’s Office.
Bailey told GoLocal that while he did not initially intend to enter the race, that lack of a challenger inspired him to throw his name in the ring.
“I originally considered running and said no. I was just coming out of paternity leave had a lot to do at Multnomah County, and really believed that Portland would see a strong race,” Bailey told GoLocal. “Over the weeks as that didn’t happen people reached out to me and I thought myself that we need a campaign, we need a debate, we need a discussion.”
Jim Moore, Director of Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation, told GoLocal he agreed that Portland would have been hurt by the lack of a true campaign.
“I think there’s a lot to be said for the argument that Portlanders lose out when they don’t have the chance to move through a real, competitive election,” Moore said. “If Wheeler was able to go in essentially unchallenged they will miss out on that.”
A Chance to Become More Informed
John Horvick, Vice President and Political Director for DHM Research, told GoLocal that Portland residents would have suffered without a true race for Mayor.
“I think it is very concerning,” John Horvick Vice President and Political Director of DHM Research, told GoLocal. “In general, people are woefully under informed on most major issues. Campaigns are a way to inform people about what’s going on. When we don’t have that process, the public is really disadvantaged.”
Horvick said that while elections, particularly city elections, can become combative or turn ugly, they are an integral part of the political process.
“Campaigns help frame issues and perspectives and rally people around one side or another,” Horvick said. “That can be a contentious process, but it is really important. It’s important for democracy that that process can occur. If it doesn’t, it can become a real issue.”
Ted Wheeler during his campaign announcement speech
Good for Wheeler Too
Horvick said that the lack of a challenger would have harmed not just the people of Portland, but Wheeler as well.
“It’s important for policy makers to have won by making an argument,” Horvick said. “If Wheeler wins this election in May without a challenger, he’ll have seven months before he takes office and then will have to be ready to govern on day one. It will be much more difficult for him to find people to rally around him.”
Moore said that without the clear base of supporters than can come from a hard-fought election victory, it will be more difficult to lead the city.
“He will come into office without a clear group of people behind him, and that can really be a detriment,” Moore said. “He’ll have plenty of endorsements of people that say they are behind him, but we really won’t know what that means. They really won’t have any choice other than to support him.”
Moore added that while the lack of a campaign could allow Wheeler to take office with a clean record, it could also trap him.
“On one hand, he’ll enter office with kind of a blank slate and have a chance to leave his fingerprints quickly,” Moore said. “On the other hand, he could easily alienate people without realizing he’s alienating them and he could see support plummet quickly.”
