By this time next month, Oregonians can look forward to a tsunami of political ads about a controversial $3 billion corporate tax measure on the November ballot.
Opponents of Measure 97 recently spent at least $1.2 million to purchase ads on Portland-area television stations from late September and through Election Day, according to Federal Communications Commission records.
So far, the campaign to defeat the tax measure has reported spending $2 million on radio and television ads, according to state campaign finance disclosures. Supporters have yet to report any major broadcast advertising buys.
But in the meantime, a trickle of ads and mailers have already begun raising some of the issues expected to surface this fall-- beleaguered teachers and schools vs. wasteful government spending -- even as they stop short of asking for votes for or against the measure.
And unlike the official campaigns, the groups paying for these ads don't have to publicly disclose how much they spend.
Measure 97 would charge certain C corporations a 2.5 percent tax on their gross annual sales in Oregon above $25 million. Supporters say much of the new revenue would pay for better public schools, while opponents say the tax could cover a public pension shortfall and amount to a blank check because lawmakers could spend the money as they please.
Jim Moore, director of the Tom McCall Center for Policy Innovation at Pacific University, said it's not unusual for groups with a stake in ballot initiatives to also produce some subtler ads.
"Measure 97 is going to invite that type of stuff, especially by the pro side just because they've got to make the more complex argument," Moore said. "Every time you ask someone to vote 'yes' on a ballot measure you've got to make the more complex argument. Voting 'no' is the status quo, and that's the easiest vote to get out of people."
The Taxpayer Association of Oregon, a couple of weeks ago, sent a postcard to 30,000 Oregonians that claims "Oregon is the #1 tax-and-spend state in the West," based on per-capita state spending figures from the National Association of State Budget Officers.
The mailer cites some of the state's more expensive bungled projects, from $300 million spent on the failed Cover Oregon healthcare exchange to a 10-year, $36.5 million-per-mile highway project between Corvallis and Newport.
Meanwhile, the Oregon Education Association, which has given more than $775,000 to the campaign to pass Measure 97, launched an emotional ad campaign dubbed "Teaching is Love" that aired during the Olympics.
"It's wonderful, every day, 10- and 11-year-old boys and girls fighting over who gets to give me a hug at the end of the day," one teacher says in an ad.
Another ad shows students thanking their teachers, then cuts to emotional footage of teachers who can barely hold back tears when they're asked to thank their students.
"This could easily be part of a broader campaign strategy," Moore said of the Oregon Education Association ads.
Both groups, however, denied the advertising was meant to affect the vote on Measure 97.
"We did it at the end of last year, too," Jason Williams, executive director of the nonprofit Taxpayer Association of Oregon, said of the postcard campaign.
Williams said the group, which also sent out 30,000 postcards about Oregon's public pension fund shortfall and plans to continue sending mailers about other tax and budget issues, does oppose Measure 97.
Laila Hirschfeld, a spokeswoman for the Oregon Education Association, said the goal of their ad campaign is "to get people excited about the work that we're doing around public education, and in particular our educators and their work in the classroom."
"We really want folks to understand about the love that goes into this work," Hirschfeld said. "It would be tempting to connect these two things, but this campaign would have happened whether or not Measure 97 happened."
And yet, future ads might explore how teachers need more money from the state in order to better serve students.
The union plans to air four additional videos over the next month, and will ask parents, students and teachers to contribute their own videos "about the experiences they've had and the connections they've made in our public schools," according to a press release.
The firm Oregon Education Association hired to oversee the project, WheelhouseNW, also provided a list of questions on its website for teachers, parents and students to ask each other.
For example, parents and students are invited to discuss "What's working well at your child's school? What would improve with more funding?" The firm asks teachers to answer "What tools/support/resources are crucial to your job? How do you make due [sic] without them?"
"We want to make the point that there's a lot that could happen in our public schools if they were resourced the way they should be," Hirschfeld said. "That has to be part of the conversation."
This story has been updated to reflect the following correction: an earlier version of this story incorrectly listed one of the cities along the $36.5 million-per-mile highway project, which is between Corvallis and Newport.
-- Hillary Borrud
503-294-4034; @hborrud