Eclipse 2017: Already-rising gas prices not expected to surge, but shortages possible

Could a solar eclipse bring astronomical prices at the pump? Probably not except in isolated cases, analysts say.

Gas prices have climbed by a few cents over the last week to a statewide average of just over $2.70 a gallon, and they can be expected to continue to rise through the weekend.

But despite expectations that a million travelers will hit the roads, headed for various corners of Oregon to view the state's first total solar eclipse in nearly four decades, nobody's expecting a huge surge.

"I don't think this is a situation where we're going to see $5 a gallon gas," said Marie Dodds, a spokeswoman for AAA Oregon/Idaho. "Will we see $3 a gallon gas in some communities? Yes, because we're already seeing that in some communities."

Gas prices

National average:

$2.35

Oregon average:

$2.72

Portland:

$2.74

Salem:

$2.64

Eugene/Springfield:

$2.70

Medford/Ashland:

$2.73

Bend:

2.75

Vancouver, Wash.:

$2.83

Source: AAA Oregon/Idaho

The weekend leading up to the eclipse, and the days to follow, will likely look a lot like a busy holiday weekend in terms of gas prices. Gas station operators will stock up ahead of time, and they'll raise prices gradually over the course of several weeks.

"Gasoline prices generally don't respond to a short burst of high demand," said Patrick DeHaan, a petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com. "It would have to be on the scale of several weeks of high demand for prices to react."

Gas prices have been rising over the past month and a half, tracking an increase in the price of crude oil. And in the West, prices have risen more quickly as the region's gas supply has dwindled in the face of high demand through the summer.

Those circumstances have set the trend in recent weeks. The looming eclipse, by contrast, has barely registered.

But there's still plenty room for uncertainty.

While holiday weekends send travelers onto the roads, they don't send the traveling public to descend upon a narrow band of communities in the middle of the public.

Even if a statewide shortage isn't expected, some especially far-flung communities with just a handful of gas stations could run short on fuel, or run out altogether.

And as hordes of eclipse-viewers clog Oregon's rural two-lane highways, tanker-trucks could have trouble getting through to resupply.

AAA and state transportation officials have advised travelers and residents alike to fuel up before eclipse travel begins in earnest. They also have advised travelers not to let their car get below half a tank of gas.

"This is the Fourth of July with a snowstorm rolled in," Dodds said. "Nobody really knows what to expect."

-- Elliot Njus

enjus@oregonian.com
503-294-5034
@enjus

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