End of 2022 election signals start of 2024 races

The 2022 election is over — the 2024 campaign has begun.

A combination of election upsets, rumored retirements, and term limits are already shaping races on the ballot in two years.

The 2024 election will feature three executive offices — treasurer, secretary of state and attorney general. All 60 state House seats will be up for grabs, as will about half of the 30 state senate seats.

The secretary of state has already received 18 proposed ballot measures, including a property tax freeze for senior citizens, campaign finance reform, state funding of homeschooling, and ranked-choice elections. Dozens more are expected to be filed — though past experience shows a fraction make it onto the ballot.

In 2022, only two of 60 publicly submitted initiatives and constitutional amendments survived legal review, court challenges and gathered enough signatures to go to voters. The measures on gun control and punishments for lawmakers who walked out on legislative sessions were approved by voters.

A pair of Oregon congressional seats were the hottest races in 2022 and the narrow margins of victory — one seat for Democrats and one for Republicans — promise a replay in the next election.

“Party leaders on the national level are already talking about 2024 and the two seats in Oregon,” said Jim Moore, political director of the Tom McCall Center for Civic Engagement at Pacific University in Forest Grove.

Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer won the 5th Congressional District race by just over 7,700 votes out of just over 346,000 cast. Democrat Andrea Salinas won the 6th district by just over 7,100 votes out of 293,000 cast.

Representative race repeat

Republicans will have a 222-213 majority in the U.S. House next year, about the same margin Democrats hold. Who controls the House after the 2024 election could hinge once again on the outcome of the congressional races in Oregon.

“Because both races were so close, they’ll be like open seats again in two years,” Moore said. “There isn’t enough time to build up an incumbency advantage before the next election.”

Moore said there will likely be a platoon of Democratic state lawmakers and mayors who will line up to run against Chavez-DeRemer, especially if ex-President Donald Trump is the GOP nominee. Under those conditions, Democratic voters turnout would likely surge in the 5th district.

Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost the 2022 general election to Chavez-DeRemer, could run again in 2024 with reasonable hope of a different outcome, Moore said.

In the 6th district, the GOP’s best shot could be Christine Drazan, the former House Minority Leader who lost a close race for governor to former House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland. Drazan showed the ability to raise funds from state and national GOP donors, with contributions hitting $22.5 million by election day.

Moore said Drazan doesn’t have the background to run for treasurer or attorney general and would be in a tough fight against Fagan for secretary of state.

A quirk in the U.S. Constitution allows candidates to run for congressional districts outside of where they live as long as they are state residents. Salinas and Chavez-DeRemer both live in Clackamas County, just outside the districts they were just elected to represent. So would Drazan.

“Drazan is the top of the Republican Party in Oregon — nobody else is even close,” Moore said. “She has to sit down and decide what she wants to do. How to best use all the name recognition the campaign for governor bought and all the fundraising connections. But first, she has to ask herself if running for Congress is for her.”

Legislature shuffle

Along with congressional races, the 2024 election in Oregon will include three statewide executive offices, all 60 state house seats and at least half the 30 state senate seats.

The 2022 election results cut the Democratic majority by two seats to 35-25 in the House and 17-12 in the Senate, with former Republican Brian Boquist of Dallas frequently a 13th vote for the GOP.

Senators elected in 2020 will get their first taste of running in newly aligned districts.

Senate Minority Leader Tim Knopp, R-Bend, will have to decide whether to seek another term in a more heavily Democratic than the one he narrowly held in 2020.

Sen. Michael Dembrow, D-Portland, had his district redrawn to overlap with Sen. Lew Frederick, D-Portland. Dembrow has said he will retire instead of running in 2024 against Frederick, a close friend.

Treasurer tops trio of racesThe top state’s top political jobs won’t be on the ballot. Kotek won’t have to run for governor again until 2026. If she wins reelection, she’ll hold the governorship through the rest of the decade. Neither of Oregon’s two U.S. Senators will be on the ballot. Democrat Ron Wyden won a new six-year term this year. The seat of Democrat Jeff Merkley won’t come up again until 2026.

The highest-ranking office featuring an open race will be to see who succeeds Treasurer Tobias Read. Re-elected in 2020, Read is barred from running again by term limits. He finished second to Kotek in the 2022 Democratic primary for governor. The next step in his political career is another question mark for election watchers.

Secretary of State Shemia Fagan and Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum can both run for reelection in 2024.

The Secretary of State office is on the ballot in 2024. Barring a political pivot, Fagan, a Democrat, is expected to run for reelection. At 41, Fagan is young enough to take the long-term view of when best to make her next move. Like Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle, she could forego reelection and run for Congress in two years. But waiting for a future open election for governor or U.S. senator later in the 2020s is also an option.

Rosenblum can run again — the state’s top law enforcement office has no term limits. Rosenblum is 71. But Biden is 80, Trump is 76, Wyden is 73 and U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer is 74. It’s an era when a decision to retire when reaching age 70 or beyond is far from automatic.

Besides Treasurer Read, the only other certain departure is Gov. Kate Brown. She was barred from running for another term in 2022. Asked about plans beyond Jan. 9, Brown spokesman Charles Boyle said last week that the governor was in constant contact with Kotek and her team to ensure “a smooth transition.”

The work was interrupted when Brown and her husband, Dan, tested positive for COVID-19 upon return from a trade mission to Vietnam. They’ve since recovered and are on track to hand over the keys to Mahonia Hall to Kotek on Jan. 9 of next year, when the new governor is inaugurated.