The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.
The state is enjoying one of the longest stretches of economic growth in its history – and Oregonians expect things will get even better before they eventually cool off.
That’s the finding of a new poll by Moore Information Group, conducted on behalf of Oregon Business & Industry, the state’s largest business association.
The survey found the state to be conflicted, with a plurality suggesting their quality of life is on the decline and that Oregon is headed in the wrong direction. And yet most report they expect their own financial prospects will continue improving.
Recent data shows Oregon job growth is slowing and manufacturing may be in a recession, two of many signals that the economy has cooled off considerably this year.
Still, most respondents don’t see any decline in their own situation and don’t expect one soon. Nearly half say the economy is still growing and most expect that growth to continue for at least another year.
Half of Oregonians say they’re better off now than they were a year earlier, and a slightly larger number expect to be better off a year from now than they are today.
“Rarely have we seen a better economy than we have today. Stringing together 11 years of decent economic gains really adds up,” said Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis.
Oregonians still have plenty of concerns, though – especially around housing. Poll respondents named homelessness as the state’s biggest problem, with affordable housing just a hair behind. Housing concerns are especially high in the Portland area.
In southern and coastal Oregon, 72% of respondents think kids will have to move out of their region to find good jobs.
“I think in broad strokes it matches reality,” Lehner wrote in an email. There’s “more concern about jobs on the coast and in the southern counties, places where economic growth hasn’t been as strong or for as long as in Portland or Willamette Valley. In Portland the concerns are all about homelessness and none about jobs. That matched what people see every day.”
The poll represents a sample of 591 voters statewide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. Respondents were overrepresented in the southern, coastal and eastern parts of the state.
The polling firm also asked about political issues facing the state:
· The Oregon Legislature: 37% disapprove of its performance during this year’s heated session, which featured a $1 billion business tax hike pushed through by the Democratic supermajority and a Republican walkout over a bill to fight climate change. Just 27% approve.
· Gov. Kate Brown: 52% disapprove of her performance, though the Democrat handily won re-election just a year ago.
· Oregon schools: 58% are dissatisfied with the quality of K-12 education; just 29% are satisfied.
· Tax hike: 47% support the gross-receipts tax lawmakers approved in May to pay for more education funding; 36% are opposed. There was no public polling on the issue at that time, but this new poll’s results might help explain why an effort to refer the tax to voters died at the starting line.
· Renewable energy: 58% would support a measure that would require all of Oregon’s electricity to be carbon-free by 2045. But if voters are told the measure would create “significantly higher electric rates,” support and opposition is evenly split.
-- Mike Rogoway | twitter: @rogoway | 503-294-7699