Dry conditions, winds could increase fire activity, carry smoke into Willamette Valley

As warm and dry weather replaces rain showers, light winds could reignite areas within the wildfire perimeter and carry lingering smoke back toward the Willamette Valley. 

Last week, the valley received a few inches of rain, dampening the area wildfires.

But a period of warmer temperatures, drier conditions and stronger winds from the east could lead to an increase in fire activity, said Scott Owen, a public information officer with the Beachie Creek Fire.

"We expect to see additional smoke from some of the stumps that are smoking out there and maybe even some small flames within the fire perimeter," Owen said. “There's a lot of fuel from trees out there that haven't been burned and they're surrounded by smoking areas.”

Still, officials say the fire is expected to stay within the perimeter.

Temperatures in the mid-valley are anticipated to steadily climb, reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s by Tuesday and lingering in the mid-80s through the remainder of the week, said Will Ahue, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Portland. 

Chances of showers are limited until next Sunday.

Increase of smoke in the Mid-Willamette Valley

Easterly winds will start picking up Sunday afternoon and get stronger throughout the week, reaching between 20 and 30 miles per hour, Ahue said. 

"It's not going to be as strong as ... when the fires took off, but it's going to be enough to push whatever smoke the fire does produce in the Salem area and the central valley," he said. 

Owen said smoke will likely come from the Beachie Creek Fire, as well as the Lionshead and Riverside fires. A southern wind component also could bring smoke from California.

"The forecast isn't as bad as what we had right after the Labor Day wind event, but we're expecting to have an elevated amount of smoke," Owen said. 

As of Sunday afternoon, the air quality remained 'good' in Salem and surrounding areas, according to the Air Quality Monitoring Data from the Department of Environmental Quality.

The air quality in the Mill City area shifted to the 'moderate' level, data showed. 

Ahue said meteorologists will continue to monitor the smoke, though it's hard to tell how much will inch into the metro area.

Fire officials said residents just returning to their homes along the Highway 22 corridor will see and smell more smoke, but asked individuals to refrain from calling 911. "This is not new fire; it’s a shift of wind direction," officials wrote in a Sunday wildfire update. "Each call takes firefighters away from their work."

Updates for the Lionshead and Riverside fires contained similar information saying winds could result in a slight increase in fire behavior but assured no spread is expected. 

As of Sunday morning, crews reached 56% containment for the Beachie Creek Fire. The Lionshead and Riverside fires have both reached 34% containment. 

Fire coverage:Shellburg Falls area 'hit pretty hard' by Beachie Creek Fire

In Salem, highs are expected in the mid-70s with lows around 50 degrees on Sunday, Ahue said. On Monday, temperatures will be in the mid-80s and cool down into the 50s at night; and on Tuesday, temperatures will range between the upper 80s and mid-90 and drop into the 50s at night.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler where the fires are, but not much, Ahue said.

Virginia Barreda is the breaking news and public safety reporter for the Statesman Journal. She can be reached at 503-399-6657 or at vbarreda@statesmanjournal.com. Follow her on Twitter at @vbarreda2.