Races start for U.S. House seats with borders unknown

The 2020 U.S. Census seized-up under pressure of counting in communities hit by COVID-19. The once-a-decade detailed data the state requires to draw new political maps has always — always — arrived by April 1 of the following year.

Not in this year. Pandemics play hell with politics.

The data is now due Aug. 16.

Oregon doesn't let candidates file for the 2022 elections until Sept. 9, 2021. By then about all U.S. House candidates will know is they will represent an average of 706,209 people under the 2022 math. But where — north, south, east or west — the throng in each district lives will be still undecided.

On the day the Secretary of State in Salem throws open the window to file, the 11 lawmakers who are supposed to be making the new political maps will be an hour's making drive south — in Eugene — holding a hearing on what they should do about redistricting. For those in Salem eager to sign up — which district to go for is anyone's guess.

U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, has it easiest. He's seeking another six-year term in the Senate seat he's held since 1966. A U.S. Senator represents the whole state — no district border problem then.

But it's still going to be a crapshoot for all 60 seats in the state House and at least half of the 30 state Senate seats will be up for election. The lines will get scrambled to reflect changes in population and demographics since the last census in 2010. But at least the overall number of seats won't change.

Not true for Congress. The five U.S. House incumbents for Oregon — four Democrats and one Republican — have started raising money for bids to return to Capitol Hill.

The five will still have to make guesses about how their districts might swell, shrink or stretch because population shifts. Bend and suburban Portland have boomed. The area east of the Cascades and Southwest Oregon have not kept pace.

On top of it all, they'll have to make room for a sixth seat Oregon was awarded in April because of its population increase since 2010 (California lost a seat for the first time in its history).

The late district drawing does come with a calming asterisk for congressional incumbents and hopefuls. Unlike state lawmakers, members of the U.S. House aren't legally required to live in their districts — just the state.

Willamette Week recently cited a Washington Post story from 2017 reporting 21 of the 435 House members at that time were registered to vote outside their districts.

Candidates for the legislature and Congress face a confusing mix-and-match of rules.

All must file to vote with the Oregon Secretary of Stage beginning next month.

But both state and federal candidates are free to raise money earlier.

They just have to sign up with different watchdogs.

Legislative campaign financing is handled by the Oregon Secretary of State. The state's open-ended campaign fundraising laws are legendary around the country. Unlimited money from any single source to any candidate as long as it is reported to the Election's Division.

Congressional candidates have to raise funds under stricter rules controlled by the Federal Election Commission. The size, though not the number, of contributions is regulated.

Voters for Congress also get an earlier look on who is serious about running.

Despite the state's official Sept. 9 starting date for filing, the FEC requires a "statement of candidacy" for 2022 fundraising can get started.

When will this mess get fixed? Not this summer.

But when it does, it will be a sprint, not a marathon. The Oregon Supreme Court has the absurdly late census data needed to build district block-by-block will to to Legislatures if and when it arrives Aug. 16. They'll get the first shot at political mapmaking for 2022.

Expert analysis, public hearings, debate, revisions. a proposal sent to the House and Senate for approval, then on to Gov. Kate Brown for approval or veto.

All in six weeks to do what is normally done in three months.

A special session of the Legislature on Sept. 20 is supposed to ratify the plan. It has to be through the House, Senate and governor's office in time to be in the laps of the Oregon Supreme Court one week later - Sept. 27

If all goes well, legislative and congressional districts 2022 will be more or less known by the beginning of October.

Unless the Legislature can't agree.

Or Brown doesn't approve their work.

Then comes Plan B — and things get even more confusing.

Legislative redistricting would go to Secretary of State Shemia Fagan to draw maps and get them to the court.

But not the U.S. House seats. The Oregon Supreme Court will create a five-member judicial panel with one jurist drawn from each of the five current district.

There are other ifs and buts, deadlines and possible delays from court challenges.

But the bottom-line goal is for the drawing, squabbling, and court challenges to be done with time to spare before the March 8 deadline for candidates to file for office.

The quicker the maps are finished, the longer that candidates and voters will get a chance to figure out who and what and where they are voting for in the May 27 primary.

by early next year. Enough time for candidates to know where they are running and voters to know who they are voting for before the May 22, 2022 primary. voters and candidates know who is running for what and where.

That circles back around to the campaign finance reporting split. Candidates for state offices usually have to report contributions within 30 days of receipt.

Back to campaign financing: Candidates for state office have to regularly report how much they have raised and spent — usually within 30 days, but close to election time, it's 7 days.

Congress reports four times a year - once every three months. The latest report came in June 30. The filings say who is running, how much they raised this year, how much they spent, plus "cash on hand." The latter figure can often be the largest because it money that incumbents - are challengers who are making back-to-back bids, roll over from their last campaigns.

The latest FEC report is a very, very early snapshot of who is in, who is out, who has money, who is spending. There will likely be dozens more candidates and surely millions more dollars. And remember, that doesn't county the outside spending by outside groups that is harder to regulate.